“Ukraine’s offensive in the south”: Kyiv’s dreams were predicted to collapse

“Everything will end in final defeat”

Ukrainian Minister of War Oleksiy Reznikov (in his former life a lawyer and honored lawyer of Ukraine) gave away a strategic secret. In an interview with The Times, he announced that he had received orders from Zelensky to launch an offensive in the south into coastal areas. Usually they try to keep such important information secret in order to catch the enemy by surprise. But, apparently, the honored lawyer is not very good with strategy and tactics. Well, or the statement about the counteroffensive in the south has some other purpose than military.

Photo: Global Look Press

In unison with Reznikov, the population of the liberated Kherson and Zaporozhye regions is also frightened by the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, Irina Vereshchuk: “Inhabitants of the southern regions of Ukraine, especially Kherson and Zaporozhye, should be evacuated as quickly as possible by all possible means,” she said. “Our artillery must work.”

The fact that against the backdrop of the fatal failures of the armed forces of Ukraine (APU) in the Donbass, Kyiv urgently needs at least some kind of military success for internal and external use is an obvious fact. Analysts have long paid attention to the fact that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to save the most combat-ready units, withdrawing them at the slightest threat of encirclement. So it was in Severodonetsk, Gorsky, Lisichansk. This is done at the expense of poorly trained territorial defense troops, who are forbidden to leave their positions under pain of being shot. They bear the main losses.

Those units that can be withdrawn are directed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to form new lines of defense around the Dnieper (Dnepropetrovsk), Zaporozhye, and Krivoy Rog. Some specialists are sent abroad so that they can quickly master Western weapons there. So, the other day it became known that 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are on the territory of Britain, where they are mastering NATO artillery. This was announced by British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.

Is it a lot or a little? Losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for four months are estimated at 150-200 thousand wounded, killed and captured. It is unlikely that the Ukrainian military trained in NATO countries will be able to make up for these losses. However, the danger of such replenishment cannot be underestimated.

So, the Ukrainian politician Oleg Tsarev on social networks left the following comment on this: “The pace of training of fresh units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, but increasing. New units are being prepared in Poland, Great Britain, and possibly in other countries. They are fully equipped and armed. They bring in mercenaries. Deliveries under Lend-Lease are unfolding. They want to put a million soldiers under arms through mobilization. They plan to put all this into battle in the fall. It will be hot in autumn. We must be ready for this.”

So, Kyiv's desires and plans are clear. You can't count them out. The question is how adequate and realizable they are and what can be opposed to them.

In this regard, it is worth remembering the history. They say, for example, that on April 22, 1945, Hitler, in Berlin surrounded by Soviet troops, held one of his last meetings with the generals. When a representative of the Wehrmacht headquarters reported to the Fuhrer that SS General Steiner had not yet launched an offensive to liberate Berlin, and his army had not even been formed and existed only on paper, Hitler suffered a nervous breakdown: he screamed and stamped his feet. And he ended with the words: “It’s all over…”

Many believe that the analogy in this case is appropriate. Here is the politician Ilya Kiva, who has been disgraced in Ukraine, believes that, “having lost and completely written off the Donbass, Zelensky decided to put on a show in the south of Ukraine.” “I can say in advance that this will be the last show of the actor and everything will end with the final defeat and collapse of the Kyiv regime. The only thing is, of course, I feel sorry for the people who will be thrust into this final meat grinder, ”Kiva predicted.

Assessing Reznikov's statements, many experts saw him as a piece of information to destabilize the situation in the liberated territories, as well as a way to divert our combined forces from actions in the Donbass. The Legitimny Telegram channel called Zelensky’s demand to return the south of Ukraine a “strike of last hope” and an attempt to raise the morale of society and the army. In fact, returning the lost territories is unrealistic.

According to the information resource, citing a source close to Zelensky, Kyiv also understands that with a massive counteroffensive, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area will be huge. The Armed Forces of Ukraine must outnumber the enemy by at least 2-3 times in manpower, be better equipped, and have more heavy weapons and artillery than the defenders. The APU has none of this. Just like there is no aviation.

Well, now the most important argument in assessing the Kyiv hoteliers about the “counterattack”. The politician and writer Zakhar Prilepin drew attention to him, who cited the data of the next summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past 24 hours. According to it, 7 missiles arrived in Nikolaev, which is still under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at 4 am. “The preparations for the counteroffensive on Kherson are already habitually being interrupted. If not for these nightly 7 missiles, a large-scale offensive would have happened long ago. But every time one thing breaks, then another. We have to postpone,” Prilepin ironically.

And this, apparently, is true. At least, the Russian General Staff demonstrates almost daily that it sees the threat of possible provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south and neutralizes it. So, on July 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Caliber missiles in the area of ​​​​the village of Radushnoye, Dnepropetrovsk region, destroyed ammunition depots for HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, M777 howitzers, and self-propelled guns 2S7 “Pion” supplied by the United States to Ukraine. Three ammunition depots were also destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Komsomolskoye and Partizanskoye of the Nikolaev region.

Two days ago, on July 9, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also suffered heavy losses in the Kherson direction. During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 200 people killed and wounded there, two Su-25 attack aircraft, 2 MiG-29 fighters, about a dozen vehicles. Five Tochka-U missiles were intercepted, a control center of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two control posts of the rear of the operational command “South” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.

And such combat work in this area is carried out day after day, with high intensity . For example, over the past week, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction amounted to 1,300 people killed and wounded, several dozen armored vehicles. A week earlier, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border with the Kherson region amounted to more than 820 people killed and wounded and a huge number of armored vehicles of various classes.

So, one can only imagine what losses an attempt to organize an offensive on the flat terrain will turn out for Kyiv, where there is nowhere for the troops to hide from artillery and aviation.

Источник www.mk.ru

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